Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.